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Is the hobby dying again?

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There are a lot of collector cars for sale in California, right now. That has always signaled a recession coming.
This one is going to be a bigger one than the last one. The economy is succumbing to a death of a thousand cuts.
Wages have been stagnant for many years, inequality of wealth hasn’t been this bad since the Gilded Ages of the 1800’s.
Infrastructure is crumbling around us, through graft and greed. America has been spending over 60% of our treasury, annually, on perpetual wars. Politicians have divided and conquered us, to the point of anarchy.

Listen to this Pulitzer Prize winning author and scholar.

 
One comfort I take is that it really is just a hobby for the most part. If you enjoy riding and working on the bikes, then stay with it. Whether my Raleigh DL-1 is worth $150 versus $300 is not a big deal to me. It's worth more as something I enjoy and ride regardless of value. And I think that's sort of the essence of the hobby. I could never really make a go as a bulk bike flipper, I guess.
 
I started in the hobby around '91. I stayed with it for 7 or 8 years but my kids were far more important. They are now adults, and I am back at it. Because of new cleats, better band instruments, travel soccer, etc., I sold everything I had accumulated for a fraction of the actual value. Now I have disposable income (which comes with age) and am stunned by the prices I am seeing. I am interested in higher end bikes, but they appear completely out of reach. If the economy does continue in a downturn, I might be able to get the type I'm searching for. Obviously I don't wish anyone misfortune, but I hope they begin to show up again.
 
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Reading this reminds me of a story I have told Bob many times. Back in the early 90s my buddy and I happened upon a vintage bike meet in our town that was attended by some of the legends of the hobby from that era. They were just as into our vintage and dusty canyon/fire road runners as we were into their Aerocycles, TOCs, etc. The one thing I remembered most about those discussions were "The hobby is dying" and "younger folks like you aren't interested in these things, we need more of you". This concern seems to have been expressed by many a collector/hobbyist over the years but I see new people come in, old ones come back, and others take a break or cash out entirely. All seems pretty normal to me.

The traditional venues for the hobby may be "dying", but I think this is just an evolution of how it works because interwebs. There are so many more bikes out there than we can imagine, both in existing collections and waiting to be found. Time will eventually provide the supply to reinvigorate the hobby.

Would you be a Repack rider?
 
There is a movement happening now to reject "stuff" in general. Millenials are spending their money on travel in competition with their online "friends" over taking the best selfie. They're posting photos of restaurant food on their plate instead of their new bike. From their point of view, a $3,000 bike will collect dust but a trip to Paris will provide lifelong memories.

Time will tell if it's a permanent societal change or just a fad, but there are other forces at work too. With global warming and plastic in the oceans, people are disenchanted with old ways of thinking and living. Now we have a "sharing economy". Here in Toronto you don't even need to own a single bike to enjoy cycling, you can just rent one from the city's bike share program. If I tell people I have 50 bicycles they look at me like I have 3 heads. But I like my 50 bikes and I'm keeping them!

This hobby may shrink but it won't die. The bicycle is in the top ten of the greatest inventions of all time, plus it's green!

Google this Forbes article for further reading:

033 views|Jan 2, 2019,4:12 pm
NOwnership, No Problem: An Updated Look At Why Millennials Value Experiences Over Owning Things
 
Not dying.Just evolving.

This is a very good point, Vince. I was thinking about this very thing earlier this morning. I believe the bike industry is evolving faster than we (old codgers who love antique bikes) can keep up with it. Just visit the GCN site or Bikerumor and you'll get plastered with new gadgets or a bikes that weigh under 10 lbs. Everyone interested in bikes with any business experience at all, and with any investment capital at all is looking for a piece of the bike boom action. Classic bikes are getting preempted by a greater demand for technology.
 
I know collector cars are dropping Not much is moving at any price I don't know the bike market as well but I am sure of this All the men who call for whatever I am selling are old like me so I know it will be for sale again soon
 
I have been a bike guy since birth , now at '52 , I'm just an infant in the bicycle vintage world . Couldn't be happier . You can find bargains and parts , but it's tricky . Resale is difficult to regular folk . As for kids , some get it and want to be cool on a rideable customized old bike , so there is that market . As for the collector thing , it is just a very niche market and you really have to have the hook set deep to get involved seriously.

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