I think that you can pack bikes well and have a good chance of avoiding damage. And a poor job certainly will increase chances. But at the same time if i driver or handler doesnt care to keep the box upright, and like dropping boxes off trucks, you could receive a damaged bike regardless of how nice its packed.
After two bikes i shipped with ok but not top notch packing jobs , i wont send another bike out without more disassembly, tying stuff together, and wedging padding around it.
They suck.